Climate Change Is Already Happening in Africa. The World Is Still Debating Whether It’s Real

While international climate negotiations continue their decades-long cycle of targets, pledges, and missed deadlines, climate change is reshaping daily life across Africa in ways that have moved well beyond the theoretical.

Lake Chad, which once covered 25,000 square kilometres, has shrunk by approximately 90% since the 1960s. The lake’s basin supports the livelihoods of approximately 40 million people across four countries; its decline has been a documented driver of resource conflict, displacement, and agricultural collapse across the region. The crisis has attracted periodic international attention and minimal structural intervention.

In East Africa, rainfall patterns that smallholder farmers have depended on for generations have become increasingly unpredictable. The long rains and short rains seasons that structured agricultural calendars across Uganda, Kenya, Ethiopia, and Tanzania are arriving earlier, later, or not at all with a frequency that has outpaced farmers’ traditional adaptive capacity. Crop failure rates have increased. Food insecurity in regions that were self-sufficient two decades ago has grown measurably.

Southern Africa’s water systems are under stress. The Orange River basin, which supplies agriculture and urban water needs across South Africa, Namibia, Botswana, and Lesotho, has experienced record low flows. Cape Town’s 2018 near-crisis — in which the city came within weeks of running out of municipal water — was treated internationally as an anomaly. Climate projections suggest it is a preview.

Africa contributes approximately 4% of global greenhouse gas emissions. It bears, by any objective measure, a disproportionate share of climate consequences. The moral and legal case for climate reparations — wealthy countries compensating the most affected nations for damages caused primarily by their own historical emissions — is stronger for Africa than for any other region. The practical case for why this has not been adequately addressed involves the same power asymmetry that runs through every other dimension of the global-Africa relationship.

The planet is warming. Africa is noticing. The world is still holding conferences.

— Worldwide Observer Society Desk

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